Apple Macs will dominate in 2050

Apple Macs will dominate the computer market in 2050. How do I know? Take a look at the data at Netmarketshare.

I am joking of course. It's not that it couldn't happen, but it's simply too hard to predict what will happen next year never mind in 40 years time. It is interesting to look at data like this though and to see the trends over the past year.

Usage of Microsoft Windows is down by just over 1%, but Apple Macs is up by 1%. If the trend was to continue this way then Macs would be the dominent computer platform by around 2050 (hence the headline). However, we are going to see a lot of changes to Windows and Macs over that time so there is no reason to assume that this year's trend will continue for another 40 years though. Apple and Apple fans frequently boast about the fantastic growth in sales and usage and how poorly Windows and PC companies are doing in comparison, yet the figures from Netmarketshare don't really reflect this. Yes, the Apple Mac market share is growing and Windows PC is declining, but the change is tiny. It's a lot less than Apple fans would have you believe.

It is also interesting the see how slowly Linux usage is growing and a mere 0.3% in a year is odd. Linux enthusiasts will tell you how great the operating system is and how people are switching to it in droves. That's not borne out by the figures. Linux is free, so if it really is that good, why don't more people use it? The answer must surely be that Linux does not satisfy people's needs. It just doesn't do what people want, otherwise why would they reject something that is free?

There are also some fascinating web browser usage statistics at the Netmarketshare website. Internet Explorer is clearly the most used web browser and this is hardly surprising because it's part of Windows and Windows accounts for 92% of all desktops. It's use has fallen over the year though and it is down from 58% to 52%. The question is, what are people switching too?

For several years Firefox grew its market share and it has been steadily catching up with Internet Explorer, but the browser stagnated and new versions were slow in coming. This could be why Firefox market share has fallen over the year from 23% to 22%. However, there have been several significant updates this year - Firefox 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 - so it might start growing again soon. I used to use Firefox, stopped, and then started again as it picked up development speed again this year.

Opera's market share is down and this must be so disappointing for the developers. It has been banging away at this for 10 years or more and it's never had more than a couple of percent market share. It is hard to see why because the browser has some unique features. Perhaps people want simplicity and speed though. This could be why so many people are switching to Google Chrome. This browser's market share is up and it has grown from 11 to 18%. This time next year it could be well ahead of Firefox and be the second most used web browser.

Is all this data accurate and where does it come from? There can be few people these days that don't use the internet on their computer and never visit any websites, so if you collect browser and OS statistics from enough websites covering a sufficiently wide range of subjects and interests then it should be good. Netmarketshare gets its information comes from around 40,000 websites and such a large number means that it should be quite accurate.