In the Independent today, a British newspaper and website, is an article asking "Will Apple hit back at Samsung with phablets and a $99 mini iPhone?" I don't get this because if you go to the Apple website there are three models to choose from:
On the left is the 4in iPhone 5 and on the right are the 3.5in 4S and 4. Look at the prices. They are $199 for the iPhone 5 (with a contract), $99 for the 4S and $0 for the 4. Prices here in the UK are £529, £449 and £319 for unlocked phones without a contract.
If Apple already has a cheaper, smaller iPhone, why would it need another one? The specification of the iPhone 4 is getting a bit long in the tooth, but the 4S is actually a pretty good specification. Manufacturing costs tend to fall over time, so this is likely to be cheaper to make than when it was first launched. Apple could continue to make the 4S as its smaller, cheaper $99 iPhone.
Of course, Apple really could be working on a small, cheap iPhone, but would the specification actually be any different to the 4S? I can't see any advantage for the company. Just think of the development cost of a new phone - it must cost millions of dollars and a lot of man-power. Why bother when the 4S is all done and dusted?
What about a larger phone? This is a certainty. Samsung and others have shown that there is a market for large screen phones, so I would put money on a big iPhone coming from Apple sooner or later. I don't think we will see a phablet - a 5.7in iPhone. Although some people like these large phone/tablet hybrids, I don't think it is a mass market. Most people carry phones in their pockets and bags and 5.7in devices are just too big to be comfortable. I can fit my Nexus 7 in my jeans pocket, but then I can't bend over or sit down and I walk with a stiff leg. The Samsung Galaxy S4 with its 5in screen is as big as I need. It is significantly bigger than my iPhone 5, but not too big to carry around in a pocket.
An iPhone with a 4.7 to 5in screen makes perfect sense. Apple needs it and it needs it now. Samsung and others are grabbing the market for this and there is no competition from Apple. However, Apple has traditionally been on a two-year hardware upgrade cycle. It launches a phone then a year later it has a minor specification bump, a new phone then a spec bump and so on. Just think of the 3G and 3GS, 4 and 4S, 5 and... well, it surely has to be a 5S with a minor spec bump.
My guess is that we will see a new iPhone 5S with slightly better specifications and iOS 7 launched in September with it going on sale at the end of the month.
It will probably have a faster processor and a higher resolution camera among other minor tweaks. It won't be that different to the 5, but it will seem very different mainly because of iOS 7. However, if you upgrade your iPhone 5 with iOS 7 then the differences between the two will be quite minor.
My guess is that we will have to wait until next year for a larger iPhone - the iPhone 6. I think it will go for what is becoming the standard for mobile phone screens - 1920 x 1080 pixels in either 4.7 or 5in. Probably the former rather than the latter knowing how conservative Apple is (Steve Jobs rubbished larger phones). Apple really needs the iPhone 6 this year, but I don't think they could manage it and the company is locked into its two-year cycle. Under normal circumstances it wouldn't be a problem, but it has been caught out by the rising popularity of larger phones and more nimble rivals satisfying that demand.
Ignore rumours of smaller, cheaper iPhones and larger phablets. Apple already has a cheap iPhone and it doesn't need a phablet. Wait until next year and get an iPhone 6.
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