Apple tablet's future is uncertain

News stories about the Apple Tablet are everywhere and even with CES running at the moment (one of the biggest electronics shows around), hardly a day goes by without someone somewhere writing about it.

There is lots of new technology at CES and 3D television appears to be the next big thing. Every TV manufacturer is working on 3D TVs, but they don't have mass market appeal. Sure, some people will always buy the latest technology simply because it's the latest, the coolest and no-one else in their street or circle of friends has it. But it is hard to see large numbers of people replacing their TVs with them and sitting watching with funny glasses on. What's more, many people have only recently replaced their old CRT TVs with flat screen LCD and plasma screens, and it wasn't cheap. It is unrealistic to expect people to rush out and buy new TVs just to get 3D.

Another big thing at CES is the number of ebook readers and tablet computers. It seems that in 2010 there will be a glut of the devices. It is inevitable that many will fail to achieve significant sales, but there could be a few that become quite popular. Apple's tablet could be one of them. The company certainly has a knack for producing products that are regarded as cool and fashionable. What's more, the company has fans that will buy anything that it produces. For this reason alone, the Apple tablet will not be a failure.

However, will it be a mass market big seller like the iPod? Now that's a difficult question to answer. The specifications are unknown as I write this, but even if it is a fantastic device, it is still hard to see mass market sales. I have a smartphone, a laptop and a desktop, so where does a tablet fit in? If I need to travel light I can carry the smartphone, if I need a computer I can carry a laptop, and if I'm at my desk I can use the desktop computer. All my needs are catered for and a tablet doesn't fit in.

On the bright side though, Apple does have a habit of thinking outside the box, as the saying goes. Before the iPhone was released many people reckoned that an Apple mobile phone would be a failure. But that is because they were thinking that it was just another phone. It is true that an iPhone isn't a particularly good phone, but it is a brilliant hand-held computer with a touch screen interface and it is this side of it that has made it a success.

As a tablet computer, the Apple tablet might not be that hot, but that might just be a small part of its capabilities. Rumours are that it is an ebook reader and there are certainly going to be a lot of these devices around this year. They are still too expensive to be mass market products though and sales will be slow until the price falls to around a quarter of what they are right now. This will surely happen, but not this year. Apple's tablet will probably run many iPhone/iPod Touch apps at launch, but simply having a bigger screen to run existing apps won't convince many people to buy the device. It is likely to be able to run its own apps and developers will surely be working feverishly for the rest of the year producing apps for it. This time next year there will no doubt be many good Apple tablet apps.

Even if the Apple tablet is a great ebook reader and has thousands of apps, I still can't see a mass market for it. It won't be as cheap and portable as an smartphone and it won't be as powerful and functional as a laptop. At this point in time it is hard to see a market apart from enthusiasts. Of course, there are enough of those to ensure it is a minor success, like the Apple TV, but most people will probably look at it, think "That's cool," but won't buy it.